WHAT?
Estimate total ownership costs for five different vehicle types
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​​Explore uncertainty in ownership costs that considers appropriate distributions of the input parameters
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Determine if an alternative vehicle would be a cost-effective choice over a conventional vehicle
HOW?
Analyzed only SUV crossovers for better comparison between fuel types
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Assigned distribution curves to input variables to better reflect data trends
Used a stochastic model (Monte-Carlo simulations in @Risk)​​
RESULT
Hybrid Electric (HEV) = Lowest NPV
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Alternative Fuel = Highest NPV
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Probability density plot revealed BEV and alternative fuel (hydrogen) had a larger range of uncertainty in the total cost
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HEV and PHEV had the highest probability (>93%) of being as cost-competitive as a conventional gasoline vehicle