WHAT?
Estimate total ownership costs for five different vehicle types
Explore uncertainty in ownership costs that considers appropriate distributions of the input parameters
Determine if an alternative vehicle would be a cost-effective choice over a conventional vehicle
HOW?
Analyzed only SUV crossovers for better comparison between fuel types
Assigned distribution curves to input variables to better reflect data trends
Used a stochastic model (Monte-Carlo simulations in @Risk)
RESULT
Hybrid Electric (HEV) = Lowest NPV
Alternative Fuel = Highest NPV
Probability density plot revealed BEV and alternative fuel (hydrogen) had a larger range of uncertainty in the total cost
HEV and PHEV had the highest probability (>93%) of being as cost-competitive as a conventional gasoline vehicle